AET 703 Technology Management Analytics 4
image3.pngAET 703 Technology Management Analytics
Project Description
French Fried Potato Manufacture
ISSUE: 1
Revision Reason: None
You have graduated and joined a major food manufacturer – Lambda Foods. Your area of specialty is the Russet Burbank potato. The Russet, generating approximately 4 million pounds of finished frozen French fries per year, is very important to Lamba Foods.
Potatoes arrive in batches of around 25,000. These are divided into 25 size containers for the journey through production. The target size of the potato is 10 ounces plus or minus one-half of an ounce. In the containerizing process culls are removed bringing uniformity into the containers’ contents.
Blackboard contains a file which has 3 days of containerized potatoes. You are to assure that the product is running “smoothly” without the cost of a formal SQC sampling operation. You and your predecessor have a fairly efficient method of reviewing the potatoes to assure a smooth process.
Sample
First select three samples of 25 potatoes each. Determine whether you wish to do simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling or sampling from a continuous process.
Normal
Check each of your samples to determine if the weights of the potatoes are normal. Plot a histogram of each of the samples, run an Anderson-Darling test for normality on the samples to determine the normality of your samples.
Data Mean and Standard Deviation
For each of the samples give the mean and the standard deviation. For the median weight sample generate the 95% confidence interval for the weight of the population of potatoes. Perform the same analysis for the standard deviation of the weight of the population using the 95% confidence interval. Once again, only analyze one sample – the median sample based on standard deviation. Give your confidence intervals for both the population mean weight and the population standard deviation.
Meeting Target Size
Next, generate a hypothesis test statistically proving, at the alpha equal 0.05 significance level, that your population of potatoes is greater than a value within your target size. As stated, the upper control limit is 10.5 ounces, and the lower control limit is 9.5. Using your mean sample (calculated above), prove that your potato population is greater than 9.5, 9.6, 9.7, 9.8, 9.9, 10.0, 10.1, 10.2 or 10.3 based on your sample analysis.
Forecasting Capacity Needs
Your factory has seasonal demand for the finished product. For the last 20 quarters you have data which seems to support this seasonality. The data by year and quarter is below and is also found in the Blackboard file with the potatoes. These numbers represent millions of pounds of potatoes.
Table 1: Potato Demand
Year
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
2017
1.03
0.89
1.24
1.50
2018
0.95
1.02
1.36
1.11
2019
0.89
1.05
1.29
1.34
2020
0.89
0.76
1.29
1.04
2021
0.80
0.57
1.19
0.94
Using this past data engage the autoregressive forecasting model on page 226 in the text to forecast the potato demand for 2020 by quarter. Once you finish with the model you will have a multiple regression equation that may be used to predict potato demand. Plot both the actual demand and the forecasted demand.
Quality of Forecast
Use your equation to “back fill” the previous five years’ data and test the quality of your forecast. Use the following format for your output.
Table 2: Forecast Format
image1.emf
RunningMean AbsoluteAbsoluteMean Abs
ActualSumDeviation% Error% ErrorTrack
YearQTRForecastAct-ForecastABS(A-F)Forecast ErrorsMADAPEMAPESignal
Did your model violate any of the limits on the tracking signal? What is your forecast in pounds for quarter one, two, three and four for year 2022? What are your total forecasted potatoes processed for next year?
Summary
Summarize all of the findings and decisions for this manufacturing operation. Your team will be required to present findings in PowerPoint and generate at least a 10-page APA formatted paper. The paper must include the summary sheet (attached) which requests critical data from the project. The attached rubric will be used to score your project. Please become familiar with the rubric.
Enjoy this project. The project will help you to understand some of the principles learned in the statistics and data modeling class that you will be faced upon graduation.
Dr. West
Summary Sheet
image2.emf
Project ActivityUnits
1First Team Meeting DateDate
2Number of team meetingsNumber
3Meeting MethodWord
4Completion of sample and test of normalityDate
5Completion of Mean and Standard DeviationDate
6Meeting target size hypothesis testDate
7Completed work with forecastDate
8Completion of presentationDate
9Completion of paperDate
Sample
9What sample technique did you use?Word
Normal
10Was the first sample normal?Word
11What was the pvalue?Number
12Was the second sample normal?Word
13What was the pvalue?Number
14Was the third sample normal?Word
15What was the pvalue?Number
Mean and Standard Deviation
16What was the x-bar for the first sample?Number
17What was the x-bar for the second sample?Number
18What was the x-bar for the third sample?Number
19What was the standard deviation of the first sample?Number
20What was the standard deviation of the first sample?Number
21What was the standard deviation of the first sample?Number
22For the X-bar selected, what is the confidence level?Number
23What are the degrees of freedom?Number
24What is the T-value?Number
25What is the standard error of the mean?Number
26What is the half width?Number
27What is the low value for the confidence interval of the mean of the population?Number
28What is the high value for the confidence interval of the mean of the population?Number
29For the standard deviation selected, what is the confidence level?, Number
30What is the sum of squares?Number
31What is the low Chi-square distribution value?Number
32What is the high Chi-square distribution value?Number
33What is the low confidence interval value for variance?Number
34What is the high confidence interval value for variance?Number
35What is the low confidence interval value for standard deviation?Number
36What is the high confidence interval value for standard deviation?Number
Meeting Target size
37For proving greater than, what is your null hypothesis for your mean test?Word
38What is your alternative hypothesis?Word
39What is your p-value for the above hypothesis test?Number
Forecasting Capacity Needs
40In backfilling to test your model, what is the first quarter you can produce a value?Word
41What was the potato demands for year 2017 in pounds?Number
42What was the potato demands for year 2017 in 10 ounce potatoes?Number
43What is the equation to forecast using the autoregressive forecasting model?Equation
44What was the first quarter eliminated in generating the autoregressive model?Number
45What is your forecast in pounds for the first quarter of 2022?Number
46What is your forecast in pounds for the second quarter of 2022?Number
47What is your forecast in pounds for the third quarter of 2022?Number
48What is your forecast in pounds for the fourth quarter of 2022?Number
49What is your production forecast of potatoes needed in the year of 2022?Number
50For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the Actual value.Number
51For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the forecasted value.Number
52For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the absolute actual minus forecast value.Number
53For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the MAD?Number
54For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the APE?Number
55For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the MAPE?Number
56For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the tracking signal?Number
Written Rubric
Level of Mastery
4
3
2
1
Context of and purpose for writing includes considerations of audience purpose, and the circumstances surrounding the writing task(s).
20 points
Demonstrates a thorough understanding of context, audience, and purpose that is responsive to the assigned tasks and focuses all elements of the work.
15 points
Demonstrates adequate consideration of context, audience, and purpose and a clear focus on the assigned tasks (e.g. the tasks align with audience, purpose, and context).
10 points
Demonstrates awareness of context, audience, purpose and to the assigned tasks (e.g. begins to show awareness of audience’s perceptions and assumptions).
5 points
Demonstrates minimal attention to context, audience, purpose and to the assigned tasks (e.g. expectation of instructor or self as audience).
Content development
Appropriate, relevant, and compelling content; mastery of the subject or explore ideas within the context of the discipline.
20 points
Uses appropriate, relevant, and compelling content to illustrate mastery of the subject, conveying the writer’s understanding, and shaping the whole work.
15 points
Uses appropriate, relevant, and compelling content to explore ideas within the context of the discipline and shape the whole work.
10 points
Uses appropriate and relevant content to develop and explore ideas through the most of the work.
5 points
Uses appropriate and relevant content to develop simple ideas in some parts of the work.
Genre and disciplinary conventions
Formal and informal rules inherent in the expectations for writing in particular forms and/or academic fields.
20 points
Demonstrates detailed attention to and successful execution of a wide range of conventions particular to a specific discipline and/or writing tasks, including organization, content, presentation, formatting, and stylistic choices.
15 points
Demonstrates consistent use of important conventions particular to a specific discipline and/or writing tasks, including organization, content, presentation, and stylistic choices.
10 points
Follows expectations appropriate to a specific discipline and/or writing tasks for basic organization, content, and presentation.
5 points
Attempts to use a consistent system for basic organization and presentation.
Sources and evidences
Use of relevant sources to develop ideas that are appropriate for the discipline and genre of the writing.
20 points
Demonstrates skillful use of high quality, credible, relevant sources to develop ideas that are appropriate for the discipline and genre of the writing.
15 points
Demonstrates consistent use of credible, relevant sources to support ideas that are suitable within the discipline and genre of the writing.
10 points
Demonstrates attempt to use credible and/or relevant sources to support ideas that are appropriate for the discipline and genre of the writing.
5 points
Demonstrates attempt to use sources to support ideas in writing.
Control of syntax and mechanics
Use of language that communicates meaning to readers with clarity and fluency, and is error-free.
20 points
Uses graceful language that skillfully communicates meaning to readers with clarity and fluency, and is virtually error-free.
15 points
Uses straightforward language that generally conveys meaning to readers. The language in the portfolio has few errors.
10 points
Uses language that generally conveys meaning to readers with clarity, although writing may include some errors.
5 points
Uses language that sometimes impedes meaning because of errors in usage.
Critical Thinking
Level of Mastery
4
3
2
1
Technology Innovation – Demonstrate the ability in technology innovation, development and deployment of new technologies across a broad spectrum of industries, planning, problem solving, and decision-making.
20 points
Demonstrate the ability in technology innovation, development and deployment of new technologies; planning, problem solving, and decision-making.
15 points
Demonstrate the ability in development and deployment of new technologies; planning, problem solving, and decision-making.
10 points
Demonstrate the ability in technology development; planning, problem solving, and decision-making.
5 points
Demonstrate the ability in technology development and application of existing technologies.
Synthesis of Knowledge – Demonstrate the ability in embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.
20 points
Demonstrate the ability in embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.
15 points
Demonstrate the ability in synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.
10 points
Demonstrate the ability in synthesis of knowledge in relevant, valued products, processes, or services.
5 points
Demonstrate the ability in combination of knowledge in relevant products, processes, or services.
Creative Improvements – Demonstrate creative ideas in the aspects of improved quality, creation of new markets, extension of the product range, reduced labor costs, improved production processes, reduced materials, reduced environmental damage, replacement of products/services, reduced energy consumption, conformance to regulations, etc.
20 points
Demonstrate creative ideas in several aspects as mentioned in general.
15 points
Demonstrate creative ideas in at least one aspect as mentioned in general.
10 points
Demonstrate the ability in applying existing ideas for improvements in some aspects as mentioned in general.
5 points
Intend to apply existing ideas for improvements in at least one aspect as mentioned in general.
Information – Evaluate credibility of sources of information and opinion. Recognize logical conflict, compatibility, and equivalence. Assess statistical information, generalizations, and reasoning. Determine when additional information is needed for a given purpose. Recognize misleading information.
20 points
Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize logical equivalence. Assess statistical information. Determine additional information for a given purpose. Recognize misleading information.
15 points
Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize logical equivalence. Determine additional information for a given purpose. Recognize misleading information.
10 points
Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize logical equivalence. Recognize misleading information.
5 points
Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize misleading information.
Critique Ability – Critique creatively and competently the existing processes, practice, and methodology. Understand and evaluate cause and effect arguments and explanations for improvement.
20 points
Critique creatively the existing processes and methodology. Understand and evaluate cause and effect arguments and explanations for improvement.
15 points
Critique creatively the existing processes and methodology. Understand and evaluate cause and effect arguments.
