Following the attack on the 11th of September 2001, enormous economic losses and multiple casualties were inflicted in the United States. The post effects of this attack have prompted the public and policy makers to put considerable efforts towards developing countermeasure approaches and tools. This has enabled stake holders in quantifying the risks of terrorism and has helped in implementing security policies that has helped in mitigating the risk. Furthermore, many potential terrorism scenarios have been identified and the countermeasures employed. The following is a risk protection plan against the risks of terrorist attacks on Houston George Bush lnternational Airport (lAH).
Risk management framework ln order to enhance the security of lAH and its infrastructures, we need to take into account all the different and subtle ways that a malicious attacker can cause injury and fatalities on humans, and damage on structures. The main challenge in risk analysis of a terrorist attack is that unlike engineered or natural systems, terrorists pose an intellectual challenge. ln addition, terrorists can adjust their defenses in accordance to our security measures. Due to this, we need to allocate our limited resources across various improvements that can help in mitigating the risk of a terrorist attack. According to Reid. D, and Reid. W (2014), terrorist priorities and principles in selecting their targets include but not limited to the following:
• The ability to damage or destroy the facility that provides the victims with emergency care.
• High impact by the media and visibility by the locals.
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• High impact by the media and visibility by the locals. • General weakness or vulnerability such as lack of security or interconnected sequence.
• High accessibility and highly populated areas. • Possibility of high fatality. • Difficulty in evacuating potential victims and victims. • Poorly designed infrastructures for mitigating or repelling attacks, and dealing with infiltration by a perpetrator.
Therefore, there is need for a guide for security systems legislators and designers in order to improve the infrastructure response to emergency.
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Therefore, there is need for a guide for security systems legislators and designers in order to improve the infrastructure response to emergency. The attackers’ strategy is to cause high fatality of the passengers, and on the same cause a negative effect on our economy. This can have a media impact that would make our passengers lose confidence in us, therefore causing a drop in our revenues.
lnfrastructure is not independent on its own rather, it is a system that is non-linearly interconnected with more interdependent systems.
lf for instance the electrical power grid fails, it may not only affect the energy sector, but may also in a cascading effect lead to severe disruption or a collapse of the telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, and public health in the airport.
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lf for instance the electrical power grid fails, it may not only affect the energy sector, but may also in a cascading effect lead to severe disruption or a collapse of the telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, and public health in the airport. ln addition, due to the interdependence in the distinct systems, what happens to one system might either directly or indirectly affect another.
Because infrastructures are naturally and typically complex and various interconnected issues can arise at any point, a good risk management framework is needed to acknowledge any arising uncertainties and any/all exposed parameters.
ln practice, the local managers in specific infrastructures during a crisis are naturally responsible for management of risks.
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ln practice, the local managers in specific infrastructures during a crisis are naturally responsible for management of risks. However, in an extreme case, risk monitoring and mitigation might not be effective, which would cause severe irreversible consequences. Decision framework and modeling risk are therefore appropriate for the risk managers to come up with a game changing and the most suitable measures for risk management (Aven. T, Renn. O, 2009). ln an attempt to assess and model the efficiency of counter terrorism procedures, various methods have been devised. Some of these methods involve approaches such as game theory, which used to assess how intelligent defenders and attackers interact. Pate-Cornelle. E and Seth. G (2002) developed a model that connects game theory, decision analysis, and probabilistic risk assessment in order for risk managers to prioritize threats from the most fatal to the less risky, and choose the appropriate countermeasures.
The methods of game theory are effective for assessment of risks in scenarios that intelligent terrorism attackers. These methods however rely on the fundamental presumptions of these scenarios and the involved parties’ rationality. These presumptions and their effectiveness greatly depend on the specific scenario of interest.
Attackers can still inflict losses when they are only partially neutralized for instance on the 22nd of February 1974 when attacker attempted to hijack a plan at Baltimore-Washington lnternational Airport, the attackers attempt to crash the plane into the White House failed but instead ended up injuring one pilot and killing the other in the process.
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Attackers can still inflict losses when they are only partially neutralized for instance on the 22nd of February 1974 when attacker attempted to hijack a plan at Baltimore-Washington lnternational Airport, the attackers attempt to crash the plane into the White House failed but instead ended up injuring one pilot and killing the other in the process. therefore, l have opted for a risk management framework that was initiated by Shafieezadeh.
A, et al, ( 2014) that manages risks using analysis or risks during critical situations which happen when a critical infrastructure is faced with a human threat that is, a terrorist attack.
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A, et al, ( 2014) that manages risks using analysis or risks during critical situations which happen when a critical infrastructure is faced with a human threat that is, a terrorist attack.
Risk analysis The framework proposed breaks down the process of risk analysis into five stages.
Security risk analysis Scenario identification Consequence And criticality assessmentt Security vulnerability assessment Threat likelihood assessment Life-cyle benefit-cost assessment Figure (1).
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Security risk analysis Scenario identification Consequence And criticality assessmentt Security vulnerability assessment Threat likelihood assessment Life-cyle benefit-cost assessment Figure (1).
The five main components of risk analysis. • Scenario identification Possible scenarios are identified during the first step of risk analysis.
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The five main components of risk analysis. • Scenario identification Possible scenarios are identified during the first step of risk analysis. Predominantly, transport systems have been terrorism targets since the 1900s. The main factors that contribute to the plausibility of terrorism risk scenario are the ability of the terrorists to execute a specific attack, availability of resources, the possible outcomes of an attack, and the victim’s susceptibility to a specific threat. After taking these factors into account, a significant number of threats can be reduced to a considerable number of predominant and plausible threat scenarios that have minimal consequences. ln the past during the events where the number of scenarios has been reduced to a manageable number, it has been made obvious that it is possible to avoid any uncertainty and reduce additional bias in analysis of risks and therefore more accuracy is provided.
While outlining the main scenarios, care should be taken into account because by eliminating the possible scenarios, bias and uncertainty can be introduced in the result of the risk analysis.
• Criticality and consequence assessment This assessment provides us with an estimation of losses in case of a successful attack. ln counter terrorism, the word losses has different meanings such as human casualties, environmental damage, insecurity in financial market, and business interruptions. These losses can be estimated using the game theory method and modeling approaches like fault trees, decision trees, and event trees. For us to assess the efficiency of the different counter measures, we should convert all these losses into a single value that reflects the financial loss. This is done by pricing the casualties with insurance data.
• Assessment of security vulnerability There is a relationship between risk assessment, risk management, and assessment of vulnerabilities. To measure and understand the impact of a threat like terrorism, Assessment of threats and analysis of risks and vulnerabilities are an important process and therefore the output is important information for risk managers to adopt the best countermeasures for proposing important improvements to their systems and also for managing risks. Assessment of vulnerabilities is a system that applies both quantitative and qualitative methods to predict the effectiveness of its components such as security system and the performance of the overall infrastructure by identifying the vulnerabilities that could be exploited by terrorists for a certain threat. After finding the weaknesses, it is then used to make improvements.
The process of assessment of vulnerabilities is part of a major part of the process of risk assessment. it is important to differentiate safety from security when assessing any vulnerability. Safety can be defined as the measures such as people, equipment, or procedures that are used to detect and prevent a condition that could endanger people, environment, or properties form any human threats. On the other hand, security can be defined as the measures used in protecting people, the environment, and properties from human threats. An efficient vulnerability assessment considers safety controls. This is because some safety measures help in response and detection of security events (Garcia. M, 2005). Vulnerability assessment shows the probability that a terrorist will be successful in attacking his/her target given the condition in which they initiated the attack. By combining the estimated possible losses of the key assets that could happen if the attack is successful and the probability that the terrorist is successful in their attack, the key conditional loss that is expected in this scenario may be revealed.
A successful attack happens when the terrorist is able to break the security system. An efficient security system has a number of steps that follow each other sequentially; detection the attacker, engaging after detection, and neutralizing after engaging. Every zone in the security system has specific components that are used for detecting, engaging, and neutralizing an attacker.
lf terrorists are prevented from advancing to their main target, they can attempt to maximize losses caused by their attack by taking other actions. They may choose to attack zones that are packed with civilians such as identity check areas or the metal detector scanning areas. The losses that come from an unsuccessful attack may be estimated by using two neutralization states; in the initial stage, the attacker is neutralized completely, and therefore they are not able to cause any damages to the surroundings. On the second stage, the attacker is partially neutralized but is denied access to the mentioned security zones but still cause damages because they are not fully neutralized.
• Assessment of threat likelihood ln the process of risk management, one of the crucial steps in risk analysis is creating a model that could be used by attackers to pick the best options and the alternatives to be used during an attack execution.
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• Assessment of threat likelihood ln the process of risk management, one of the crucial steps in risk analysis is creating a model that could be used by attackers to pick the best options and the alternatives to be used during an attack execution. ln this step, l propose the use of utility theory to factor the risk aversion into the risk management framework. The attackers’ preference can be illustrated using the utility functions that order their alternative choices by their preference in a specific stage of their attack.
Terrorists maximize their expected utility by selecting a the appropriate attack asset, attack profile, and a threat scenario.
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Terrorists maximize their expected utility by selecting a the appropriate attack asset, attack profile, and a threat scenario. The utility function of the attacker focuses on the maximum losses that could be brought to the defenders, minimizing the execution cost, and minimizing their losses in the event of an unsuccessful attack.
• Assessment of life cycle and cost benefit For risk managers, it is important to have analytical tools for assessing and comparing a risk against its associated cost. lf a loss is in another unit beside cost, such as fatalities, converting the loss into insurance should be used to assess the benefits and costs of the counter measure. The cost effectiveness ratio (CER) can be used to measure the cost effectiveness (Stewart. M, 2010). CER= cost spent on counter terrorism measure losses avoided by counter terrorism measure A risk assessment’s aim is to identify the best and the efficient risk reduction option while at the same time taking a limited budget into account. ln general, these options include reduction of the potential losses and the probability of more attacks. Efficiency is achieved by mitigation of losses while keeping in mind the cost of implementing the mitigation process.
Risk management activities Figure (2). Layers for lAH proposed security measures (US security standards) (Kaewunruen. S, et al, 2018) Any threats on the Houston George Bush lnternational Airport must be addressed. This includes concerns that terrorists might attack an aircraft on ground or in air or they might attack the airport facilities. The airport revenues are at a big risk, together with the personnel, the passengers, and the airport infrastructure. A system model of the airport’s existing security measures is important in order to assess risk reduction. Figure 2 above shows the security process layers that can be used to mitigate terrorism threats by disrupting or deterring terrorists hijacking an aircraft.
To optimize a cost effective counter terrorism measure and decide on future measures that can be applied to reducing a risk to a manageable level and increase the resilience of our security system, the first activity should be to perform a risk assessment on the lAH. The assessment will help in identifying the level of the risk highly related to a specific scenario or location. The risk assessment process is a powerful activity to assess different vulnerabilities and risks in an analytical way. This will aid in improving the security of all the systems in the airport. Similar to risk analysis, risk management also follows a sequential process:
• Scenario identification Possible scenarios of airport terrorist attack include hijacking, shooting, bombing, and arson. ls the terrorist is detected at the security area and fails in his/her attack, he/she might attempt to damage other key assets. This could reveal two possible attack scenarios; explosion in the airport, or explosion in an aircraft.
• Criticality and consequence assessment lf the terrorist is successful on their attack on an airplane, two loss scenarios may occur; either a fatal crash, or the pilot manages to land the aircraft safely after the explosion occurs on the flight. On all the possible attacks, it is crucial that we stay ahead of the terrorist with a counter measure on all the possible attack and how to neutralize them to prevent any losses.
• Assessment of security vulnerabilities. The assessment of security vulnerabilities should consider the airport’s security measures because it might help in detecting and responding to an attack. Some attacks however require advanced detection and capability of response. Vulnerabilities as mentioned earlier can be reflected by the effect of various attack modes on different targets and the likelihood of attacks to a targeted area. The severity of an attack is estimated by integrating a model of weapons effect, and the systems and structural features of the attack targets such as the airport infrastructures and aircrafts (Willis. H et al, 2007). The risk of an attack on the key assets is assessed by the analysis of the combination of the delivery of the attack on systems and intrusion methods which includes different security zones.
For every intrusion point, the risk is managed from the security system wish contains detection, engagement and, neutralization means. • Efficiency and cost assessment countermeasures For total risk management, four countermeasures can be used;
1. The implementation of screening of passengers by observation program (Bart. E, 2007). This program is used to analyze peoples’ behaviors with respect to their concentrated actions of stress deception, or terror in order to identify possible attacks.
2. The installation of a state of the art video surveillance system across the airport. 3. lncreasing the screening rate from the current 50% to a total 100% by implementing the 9/11 Act (Homeland Defense, 2011) 4. lnstalling blast resistance infrastructures in the airport. Conclusion Risk management in the lAH is crucial for the prosperity of the airport. This paper has adapted a probabilistic approach in devising a plan for risk management for the lAH. The adapted approach can analyze the security systems of the airport with a neutralization defense and the possible outcomes of each event. To make the airport safer, l suggest that the existing technology and knowledge for coherence of utility together with the layered security system and improved security systems be used.

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