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Posted: January 4th, 2023
MGT-530 Module 05: Reliability and Decision Theory.
Reliability is a measure of the consistency and stability of a system or process. It refers to the extent to which the system or process produces the same results consistently over time. A system or process that is reliable is one that can be relied upon to function as expected and to produce consistent results.
Decision theory is a branch of mathematics and economics that deals with the analysis of decision-making under uncertainty. It involves the use of probability and statistical analysis to evaluate the risks and rewards of different decision options and to identify the most optimal course of action.
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In the context of reliability, decision theory can be used to analyze the risks and rewards of different options for maintaining or improving the reliability of a system or process. For example, a decision-maker might consider the costs and benefits of implementing different types of maintenance or monitoring procedures to improve the reliability of a system. By using decision theory to analyze the potential outcomes of different options, the decision-maker can make informed decisions that are based on evidence and probability, rather than relying on subjective judgment or gut instincts.
Reliability and decision theory are closely related in that both involve the analysis of risks and rewards and the evaluation of different options in order to make informed decisions. By using decision theory to analyze the risks and rewards of different options for maintaining or improving the reliability of a system or process, decision-makers can make informed decisions that are based on evidence and probability, and that are more likely to lead to successful outcomes.
A decision tree is a schematic representation of the alternatives available to a decision maker and their possible consequences (Stevenson, 2021).
Dream Games is an organization dedicated to the creation of innovative video games and consoles. The CEO of the organization needs to determine if, for this year, they will produce and sell the same console they have been selling for the past 5 years, or if they will produce and sell a new console which is more energy efficient, faster, and the graphics are higher quality. The expected projected budget for the production department will be SAR 70,000,000. There is always the possibility of asking the organization to increase the budget, but it will have to be very well crafted, so it has the possibility of being approved. The CEO has been presented with the following numbers in relation to the two consoles:
Product
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Investment
Production Price
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Customer Price
Projected Sales
Old Console
66,660.000.00
SAR 133.32
SAR 399.96
875,000
New Console
99,990,000.00
SAR 199.98
SAR 599.94
1,100,000
After evaluating the data above and the gaming industry, do the following:
Develop a decision tree for Dream Games in relation to the current and new console production (include the decision tree in an appendix showing chance nodes, probabilities, outcomes, expected values, and net expected value).
Explain the process you used to develop your decision tree.
Using your decision tree, which product should Dream Game select for this year? Why?
Explain your reasoning for your recommendations to Dream Games in relation to the product they should produce and sell in the coming year.
Directions:
Your assignment is required to be four to five pages in length, which does not include the title page and reference pages, which are never a part of the content minimum requirements.
Support your submission with course material concepts, principles, and theories from the textbook and at least three scholarly, peer-reviewed journal articles. Use the Saudi Digital Library to find your resources.
Formatted according to APA 7th edition and Saudi Electronic University writing standards.
It is strongly encouraged that you submit all assignments into Turnitin prior to submitting them to your instructor for grading. If you are unsure how to submit an assignment into the Originality Check tool, review the Turnitin – Student Guide for step-by-step instructions.
Review the grading rubric to see how you will be graded for this assignment.
Module Overview
In this module, you will learn about the mathematical properties of reliability and the nature of decision theory as it relates to the operation of an organization. While there is some math in this module, it is no more difficult than adding, subtracting, multiplying, and dividing. The results of those calculations provide powerful insight to the reliability of processes to deliver the best solution.
Learning Outcomes
Evaluate the impact of product reliability on the decision-making process of operations management.
Examine the reliability computations value for operations management.
Differentiate the environments under which operations decisions are made.
Analyze the techniques that apply to decision making under uncertainty.
Readings
Required:
Review Chapter 4 & 5 PowerPoint slides – Operations Management
Supplements to Chapters 4 & 5 Click for more options Chapters 4 & 5 Supplement PowerPoint Slides - Alternative Formats in Operations Management
Cabanes, B., Hubac, S., Masson, P.L., Weil, b. (2021). Improving reliability engineering in product development based on design theory: The case of FMEA in the semiconductor industry. Research in Engineering Design, 32(3), 309-329.
Recommended:
Liao, S., & Liu, Z., (2022). Enterprise financial influencing factors and early warning based on decision model tree. Scientific Programming,2022, 1-8.
Kascelan, L., Pejic Bach, M., Rondovic, B., & Durickovic, T. (2020). The interaction between social media, knowledge management and service quality: A decision tree analysis. PLoS ONE, 15(8), 1-30. Module Overview
In this module, you will learn about the mathematical properties of reliability and the nature of decision theory as it relates to the operation of an organization. While there is some math in this module, it is no more difficult than adding, subtracting, multiplying, and dividing. The results of those calculations provide powerful insight to the reliability of processes to deliver the best solution.
Learning Outcomes
Evaluate the impact of product reliability on the decision-making process of operations management.
Examine the reliability computations value for operations management.
Differentiate the environments under which operations decisions are made.
Analyze the techniques that apply to decision making under uncertainty.
Readings
Required:
Review Chapter 4 & 5 PowerPoint slides – Operations Management
Supplements to Chapters 4 & 5 Click for more options Chapters 4 & 5 Supplement PowerPoint Slides - Alternative Formats in Operations Management
Cabanes, B., Hubac, S., Masson, P.L., Weil, b. (2021). Improving reliability engineering in product development based on design theory: The case of FMEA in the semiconductor industry. Research in Engineering Design, 32(3), 309-329.
Recommended:
Liao, S., & Liu, Z., (2022). Enterprise financial influencing factors and early warning based on decision model tree. Scientific Programming,2022, 1-8.
Kascelan, L., Pejic Bach, M., Rondovic, B., & Durickovic, T. (2020). The interaction between social media, knowledge management and service quality: A decision tree analysis. PLoS ONE, 15(8), 1-30.
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