Assessment Task 2:
Apply decision analysis techniques
Due: Week 7
Worth: 45%
Format: Report
Phrase size: 3000-3500
Studying outcomes: 2 to 7
Task description
This Question Assignment permits you to select from one in all two choices.
Possibility 1 – Full your Assessment based mostly on the Catanza Applied sciences Case Examine offered under, or
Possibility 2 – Select a posh multi-stage decision case research from your personal organisation.
Question Assignment 1
You might have been engaged as a guide to your organisations/Catanza government to think about the data offered. You’re requested to use decision analysis techniques to the decision downside going through your organisation/Catanza Applied sciences and advise the corporate on their consequence choices and advisable course/s of motion. Clearly state any assumptions you have got made.
Your dialogue ought to embody:
• An government abstract
• A short overview of the important thing details and your method to the issue.
A-clearstatementof-assumptions-aboutth$lnformation provi ed and your analysis.
• A decision tree of potential decision paths and occasions together with Chances, Web
Current Worth calculations, and Anticipated Values
• The appliance of no less than one different decision-making method coated in the course of the unit, for instance SMART, Analytical Hierarchy Course of or Sensitivity Analysis.
• Advisable plan of action.
• For personal organisation choice: Further Appendices for background data and information.
Question Assignment 2
Talk about intimately the strengths and limitations of your analysis within the context of the issue confronted by your organisation/Catanza Technlogies—your-discussiomoftimitations shou
GSB014 Enterprise Decision Making and Analysis: Unit Information
embody consideration of potential biases, heuristics or different issues that will have been used or utilized by your organisation/Catanza and its employees.
Make particular suggestions for different data or investigations that might be wanted to enhance your analysis.
NOTE: The identical two questions and standards apply to each choices. Nonetheless, in case you are conducting the case research on your personal organisation, you will want to gather and provide the suitable background information and knowledge, to no less than the identical or better stage of element offered for the Catanza Case Examine. This information and background data needs to be included in Appendices and won’t be included within the phrase depend. If you happen to imagine that you just don’t have entry to suitably detailed background data and information for this Assessment, then it is suggested that you just use the Catanza Applied sciences Case Examine.
Catanza Applied sciences Case Examine
(Written as at January 2019)
Learn the case research which follows and reply the two questions on the conclusion.
Catanza Applied sciences was based in Brisbane in 2002 at Eagle Farm as a specialist in industrial sensor know-how. In 2008, they expanded into industrial robots, nonetheless this sector fell into decline leading-up to the departure of automotive producers from
Australia by 2017. In 2014 they launched a industrial grade robotic flooring cleaner which has had a gentle development in revenues and market share.
The companys turnover by product kind is proven under:
Product 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Sensors 16.2 12.eight 19.four 16.9 17.2
Industrial eight.2 6.four four. ..1
Robotic
The price of capital for the corporate is projected to be eight p.c of its income. For the sake of simplicity, it’s cheap to suppose that each one money flows happen on the finish of the calendar yr. Other than that, the influence of issues reminiscent of taxation and improvement grants needs to be disregarded.
Submission of the Assessment Necessities:
Produce a report answering the 2 points, together with textual content, drawings, diagrams, and computations, all of which needs to be supported by references to data sources and theoretical frameworks of comprehension.
For additional data, please seek the advice of the Pupil Handbook.
Standards for Analysis
Please discuss with the detailed marking rubric on the next web page for extra data.
Rubric: Task 2 of the analysis
Standards for analysis Format for Allotted Educational Grading Standards (AAC) 20 The presentation and report format should adhere to the AIM pointers.
Demonstration of in depth studying, in addition to the inclusion of all crucial references within the Harvard reference model
The standard of educational writing required for postgraduate research is appropriate. The factors are clearly said. The argument is well-structured and follows a logical stream. Retaining the textual content beneath the phrase depend restrict
Ideas, sensible software, and analytic considering are all a part of the method. 30 Sensible software of decision analysis ideas to offer recommendation on end result prospects which can be successfully expressed and clearly drawn from analysis is demonstrated.
Robotic Flooring Cleaner zero.four zero.eight 1.three 1.9 2.6
The corporate is now (January 2019) contemplating the event of business robotic garden administration instruments and gear and, as a primary step, an in depth plan has been put ahead to provide a industrial grade robotic lawnmower (code named the RLM19). Market analysis was performed in 2015-2016 and this revealed that industrial clients make their selections on this market on the premise of mowing space per day based mostly on working time per charge-and-batterycharging-timermaximurmheightof-cut, precision«navigationveaseof
programming, adaptability to uneven surfaces, hill-climbing capability, impediment sensing and avoidance, worth, security and anti-theft.
Taking this market analysis data into consideration, the corporate is now in search of to develop a manufacturing prototype based mostly on one in all two totally different approaches. Electrical wire (EW) perimeter or GPS and sensing navigation (GPS). For the EW mannequin, a wire is positioned across the perimeter of the realm to be mown after which related to supply. This mower is programmed to not cross the wire. Due to the necessity to lay wire and the battery life the EW mannequin could have a mowing space of about 3000 sq. metres per day. The GPS mannequin would use sensors to detect backyard edges and in addition GPS and mapping information to navigate with out use of the wire. This permits them to be extra versatile and suited to bigger areas of as much as 12000 sq. metres per day.
The market analysis and improvement of the designs to this point have already price $1.65 million. If a decision to proceed is made, it’s hoped that a profitable prototype may be developed by December 2019.
For the EW prototype, the companys chief engineer, Scott Shorten, has estimated that there’s a 75% probability that the December goal may very well be achieved for the EW mannequin with an additional funding of $1.75m. If the goal will not be achieved, the corporate will evaluate the scenario in January 2020. It might resolve to desert all the mission or to permit additional work on the prototype. Shorten estimates that modification of an unsuccessful prototype would price round $zero.eight million and the modifications would take a further six months to implement. He’s, nonetheless, certain that each one issues could be overcome by finish June 2020.
For the GPS prototype, Shorten estimates that there’s a 60% probability that the December goal may very well be achieved for the GPS mannequin with an additional funding of $three.3m. If the goal will not be achieved, the corporate will evaluate the scenario in January 2020. It might resolve to desert all the mission or to permit additional work on the prototype. Shorten estimates that modification of an unsuccessful prototype would price round $1.9 million and the modifications would take a further yr to implement. He’s, nonetheless, certain that each one issues could be overcome by finish December 2020.
Following the event of a profitable prototype, manufacturing could be performed in associate services in China. The manufacturing services require a six-month lead-time for retooling and element sourcing for the EW and twelve months for the GPS resolution.
If a profitable EW prototype was developed by Dec 2019, manufacturing might begin in July 2020. Nonetheless, if the prototype improvement for the EW resolution took till June 2020, then manufacturing might begin in Jan 2021. Shorten estimates the retooling and manufacturing line set-up prices for the EW resolution to be $1.25m. EW models are anticipated to promote for between $3500 and $4500.
If a profitable GPS prototype was developed by Dec 2019, manufacturing might begin in
Jan 2021. Nonetheless, if the prototype improvement for the GPS resolution took till December 2020, then manufacturing wouldn’t begin till Jan 2022. Shorten estimates the retooling and manufacturing line set-up prices for the GPS resolution to be $2.7m. GPS models are anticipated to promote for between $14000 and $16000.
Gross sales of the RLM19 could be supported by a serious promoting and advertising and marketing marketing campaign at commerce reveals, direct to grounds upkeep contractors, councils and different homeowners of golf
GSB014 Enterprise Decision Making and Analysis: Unit Information
programs, airfields and taking part in fields. This could be performed particularly within the first few months after its launch, demonstrating the most important price saving advantages. As a way to estimate the gross sales that might end result, intensive use has been manufactured from market analysis, financial and industry-wide information. A key risk is the event of aggressive merchandise by main mower producers and new entrants with robotics and electrical motor applied sciences.
To simplify the issue, the administration crew has determined to estimate gross sales beneath two totally different market situations: Good, and Poor. These situations may be assumed to prevail by all the lifetime of the product, The chances of those situations prevailing are thought to rely to some extent on how rapidly the product may be launched since an early launch will give Catanza an edge over potential rivals. The Advertising Division has estimated the next possibilities:
Market Situations Prevailing Good Poor
Month Manufacturing Commences
July 2020 zero.eight zero.2
January 2021 zero.65 zero.35
January 2022 zero.5 zero.5
It has been determined to make use of a 6-year planning horizon (i.e. as much as December 2025) since technological developments would most likely imply that a new mannequin could be required for the marketplace for later years. The tables under present the estimated web money flows which is able to happen in the course of the years of the merchandise life.
EW – Good EW – Poor GPS – Good GPS – Poor
1 st 12 months $6m $2m $10m $4m
2 nd 12 months $9m $4m $16m
three rd 12 months $12m $6m $18m $9m
4th 12 months $16m $22m $11m
fifth 12 months ** $18m $9m $26m $13m
** If required
Within the occasion of the both prototype improvement being cancelled it may be anticipated that the mental property related to the analysis output could have no residual worth.
The companyi s price of capital is estimated to be eight%. For simplicity, it may be assumed that each one money flows happen on the finish of the yr. Additionally, the impact of things like taxation and improvement grants needs to be ignored.
Assessment Submission Necessities:
Produce a report addressing the two questions – textual content, illustrations, diagrams and calculations supported by reference to the sources of knowledge and theoretical frameworks of understanding.
Seek advice from the Pupil Handbook for extra data
Assessment Standards
Please discuss with the detailed marking rubric on the following web page.
Rubric: Assessment Task 2
Assessment standards Allotted Educational Grading Standards
Format 20 Presentation and report format to prescribed AIM normal.
Demonstration of extensive studying and inclusion of requisite references in Harvard reference model.
Educational writing acceptable to postgraduate stage of research. Clearly articulated. Nicely structured, logical stream to argument. Inside required phrase depend.
Ideas, Sensible Utility and
Analytical Considering 30 Demonstrates sensible software of decision analysis ideas to advise consequence choices which can be nicely articulated and clearly drawn from analysis.
Sensible
Utility 10 Clear assertion of assumptions.
ractlca
Utility &
Analytical Considering 10 Acceptable inclusion of illustrations, diagrams and proper calculations to Help choices and recommendation.
Sensible
Utility and
Suggestions 20 Detailed dialogue of strengths and limitations of analysis.
Suggestions 10 Efficient identification of different data that might be wanted to enhance the analysis.
